Solidcore Resources (CORE)

Analyst of Solidcore (Formerly Polymetals)

From Polymetal to Solidcore: A Gold Mining Revival Story and Valuation Outlook (Updated with Latest Data)

Posted on MyCaching.com | October 21, 2025

Hello, fellow investors and resource enthusiasts! Welcome back to the blog where we dig deep into the earth—and the markets—for hidden gems. Today, we're updating our spotlight on Solidcore Resources plc (formerly Polymetal International plc), the Kazakhstan-based gold producer that's navigating geopolitical challenges with grit and strategy. With gold's meteoric rise from ~$1,650 three years ago (October 2022) to over $4,000 today—and forecasts holding it above $4,000 for years ahead—this could be a prime time to cache some shares. We've factored in the latest share price of $5.32 (as of today), the savvy $2.57 buyback, and optimistic scenarios like an LSE relisting, dividend resumption, and full independence from sanctioned Russian processing. Let's reassess the valuation and project three years out.

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The Solidcore Story: From Sanctions to Self-Sufficiency

Polymetal, founded in 1998, was a diversified gold powerhouse across Russia and Kazakhstan. The 2022 sanctions from the Ukraine conflict delisted it from the LSE and locked ~8.5% of shares in Euroclear. Rebranded as Solidcore Resources in June 2024, it's now laser-focused on Kazakhstan: two producing mines (Kyzyl and Varvara) and one major development project, with reserves exceeding 10 million ounces.

The half-year report (ended June 30, 2025) underscores resilience, with "substantial investments" targeting senior-producer status. Sustainability is key, per their ESG reports (GRI/SASB standards), prioritizing community, environment, and long-term viability. No imminent events, but past call recordings are on their site.

Pivotal moves:

• Final Exchange Offer and Mandatory Buyback: Launched July 30, 2025, to unblock ~40 million shares (8.5% of capital) at $2.57 each, up to $103 million total. At today's $5.32 price, that's a ~$107.2 million windfall ($4.75/share gain), boosting treasury value and signaling low-cost confidence. It reduces dilution and enhances liquidity—pure value creation.

• Sanctions Bypass via In-House Processing: Solidcore is building its own facilities in Kazakhstan, ditching reliance on sanctioned Russian plants (e.g., Amur POX). This slashes costs, de-risks supply chains, and could lift margins by 2027.
  

With gold's 150%+ surge since 2022—driven by inflation, geopolitics, and central bank buying—Solidcore's low AISC (~$1,000/oz) positions it perfectly. Production: 500-600koz annually now, scaling to 1Moz+ with investments.

Current Valuation: A Steal Amid Gold's Boom?

Trading at $5.32 today (up from recent $3.09 lows; OTC: POYYF, AIX: CORE, MOEX: POLY), Solidcore's market cap clocks in at $2.51 billion (472 million shares). This undervalues it compared to peers like Kinross ($10B) or Endeavour ($4B), especially with gold's tailwinds.

My Updated Valuation View: Using a DCF (FCF ~$250-350M at $4,000+ gold, 8% discount, 3% terminal growth), enterprise value reaches ~$3.5-4 billion. Subtract net debt (~$500M), add the buyback's $107M gain, and equity value hits $3.1-3.5 billion. Per share: $6.55-$7.40—a 23-39% premium to today, suggesting room for rerating.

Why still cheap? Lingering sanctions stigma, but Kazakhstan's stability and ESG emphasis should unlock value. Forward P/E ~4-5x (on ~$1.10 EPS for 2025) is a bargain vs. peers at 15-20x. An LSE relisting (rumored Q1 2026) could add 50%+ liquidity-driven pop.

Three-Year Horizon: LSE, Dividends, and Independence—$20+ in Sight?

Gold's trajectory—from $1,650 (Oct 2022) to $4,000+ now, with forecasts like J.P. Morgan's $4,000 by mid-2026, Goldman Sachs' $3,100 end-2025, and bullish outliers like CoinPriceForecast's $5,441 end-2025—sets the stage. Assuming sustained $4,000+ (conservative; some see $4,400-$4,800 by 2028), plus LSE relisting, dividends, and sanction-free ops, Solidcore soars.

• 2026: LSE Relisting: Reinstates UK/EU access; pre-sanctions multiples (15-20x) return, sparking a 50-100% rally.

• Dividends Resume: Historical 5-7% yields; with FCF ~$500M, 30% payout = $0.40/share (at $8 base), ~5% yield.

• Full Independence: In-house plants online by 2027, AISC to $800/oz, margins to 45%.

Projected Financials (Base Case with $4,000+ Gold):

• 2028 Revenue: ~$3.2B (1Moz @ $4,000/oz, up from 600koz today).

• Net Profit: $800M (25% margin).

• EPS: ~$1.85 (432M shares post-buyback/cancellation).

• Market Cap: $8-10B (15-20x P/E).

Share Price Target: $18.50-$23.25 by October 2028 (250-340% upside). The buyback's $107M "free money" and gold's stability amplify this—far beyond my prior $11.50-$13.90 call. Risks: Gold dips to $3,000 (capping at $12-15) or capex overruns, but tailwinds dominate.

Metric	Today (2025)	3-Year Target (2028)
Share Price	$5.32	$18.50-$23.25
Market Cap	$2.51B	$8-10B
P/E Ratio	4-5x	15-20x
Dividend Yield	0%	4-6%
Key Driver	Buyback + Gold Surge	LSE + $4,000+ Gold

Final Thoughts: Time to Cache Solidcore?

Solidcore is a goldilocks play—literally—in a $4,000+ era: low-cost, sanctioned-free, and value-packed via the buyback. At $5.32, it's undervalued; in three years, $20+ feels locked in with your assumptions. I own 534,000 shares of Solidcore and I am hoping to transfer to my investment portfolio as soon as legally allowed.